Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.771282 2.965916 3.174902 3.417303 3.692424 3.997037 4.362723
2025-03-02 2.475701 2.734360 3.027729 3.389536 3.830190 4.358422 5.054164
2025-03-09 2.286526 2.578094 2.921117 3.362612 3.928674 4.649933 5.674895
2025-03-16 2.156011 2.470169 2.850565 3.357398 4.035871 4.947811 6.338109
2025-03-23 2.073168 2.409128 2.826546 3.400654 4.201217 5.335375 7.195341
2025-03-30 1.966247 2.307949 2.740414 3.349201 4.224553 5.516387 7.764857
2025-04-06 1.873256 2.217456 2.659956 3.295465 4.234222 5.671812 8.318576
2025-04-13 1.777180 2.116926 2.558823 3.203125 4.174789 5.706668 8.659336
2025-04-20 1.736844 2.087029 2.550028 3.239787 4.311737 6.076494 9.729118
2025-04-27 1.710330 2.073466 2.561698 3.305506 4.498964 6.559389 11.191339
2025-05-04 1.684063 2.058324 2.569381 3.364528 4.680184 7.061618 12.904426
2025-05-11 1.633704 2.007361 2.522789 3.335985 4.709660 7.279007 13.999520
2025-05-18 1.587522 1.961077 2.481697 3.314916 4.753133 7.539069 15.368131
2025-05-25 1.543048 1.915368 2.439134 3.288450 4.784185 7.779844 16.826533
2025-06-01 1.502052 1.872851 2.399036 3.262851 4.813523 8.021985 18.455547
2025-06-08 1.469325 1.840782 2.372814 3.257893 4.880300 8.361731 20.721194
2025-06-15 1.450428 1.827755 2.374417 3.299013 5.039404 8.956094 24.691388
2025-06-22 1.410614 1.782794 2.325112 3.250100 5.015167 9.088548 26.641098
2025-06-29 1.372528 1.739170 2.276165 3.198989 4.981784 9.192253 28.605555
2025-07-06 1.327692 1.684381 2.208039 3.111096 4.865810 9.055585 29.026581
2025-07-13 1.313708 1.674738 2.209886 3.146002 5.008700 9.665514 35.429568
2025-07-20 1.306552 1.674862 2.226856 3.208542 5.217580 10.531305 46.716355
2025-07-27 1.298142 1.672712 2.239931 3.264673 5.419703 11.452676 64.041568